YouTube may be an early indicator of sustainable artist growth, according to new research analyzing streaming patterns across millions of independent music tracks.
An analysis by the catalog financing company Duetti found that artists who experienced sustained growth on YouTube before other platforms were 16% more likely to develop durable audiences than those whose initial traction came elsewhere. The study examined data across more than 6 million independent tracks, positioning video-led engagement as a potential indicator of retention rather than short-term reach.
Platform Growth Patterns Reveal Differences in Audience Quality
Duetti’s research focused on independent artists earning more than $100 and less than $350,000 annually from streaming income, analyzing catalogs with an average age of 4.2 years. Durable catalogs were defined as those experiencing less than 10% annual decline in streaming activity.
The company tracked artists who achieved two consecutive months of YouTube growth and monitored their performance across platforms over time. According to the analysis, YouTube growth emerged as “the clearest differentiator” between artists who maintained long-term audience engagement and those whose performance declined.
Although the research identifies correlations rather than causation, Duetti suggests that video-first discovery may reflect stronger audience intent than passive listening environments.
Gradual Growth Outperforms Viral Spikes
The findings also challenge assumptions about the long-term value of viral moments. Only 1.14% of independent tracks analyzed achieved viral status (defined as a fivefold increase in streams within a single month), and just 0.17% sustained that level of performance beyond three months. Fewer than 0.11% maintained viral growth for six months.
By contrast, artists who grew at a steadier pace, roughly 10% over six months, were 60% more likely to build durable catalogs than those who experienced rapid spikes exceeding 25% growth within three months.
Duetti’s analysis suggests that consistent audience expansion, rather than sudden popularity surges, may better predict long-term performance. The pattern aligns with YouTube’s emphasis on repeat viewing and ongoing content output rather than single-track discovery.
Additional findings indicate that audience demographics and geographic concentration may influence catalog longevity. Artists whose listeners included at least 30% of users aged 35 and older were 40% more likely to develop durable catalogs, while those with more than 85% of listeners concentrated in a single country were 50% more likely to maintain sustained streaming activity.
The research suggests that focused, engaged communities may contribute more to long-term performance than broad but fragmented reach.
Duetti links these patterns to viewing behavior on video platforms, where audiences actively select content rather than relying solely on algorithmic audio playlists.
Implications for Brand Partnerships
For marketers assessing artist collaborations, the study highlights several signals beyond follower counts or total streams. Consecutive months of YouTube growth, concentrated audience demographics, and steady release schedules all correlated with stronger catalog durability.
Artists releasing at least three tracks per year generated 18% higher revenue per track during the first year after release compared with those releasing less frequently. Album releases also correlated with higher revenue performance, with artists issuing at least one album annually seeing 16% higher revenue per track than those focused only on singles.
The research also identified seasonal timing effects, particularly in alternative and indie genres, where summer releases were 2.2 times more likely to achieve durable catalog status than winter releases.
Duetti’s findings draw on proprietary royalty payout data collected through partnerships with more than 1,100 independent creators. While focused on music, the analysis offers a broader perspective on how sustained audience development, rather than viral reach, may influence long-term commercial outcomes across the Creator Economy.
Image source: Duetti The full report is available here
Dragomir is a Serbian freelance blog writer and translator. He is passionate about covering insightful stories and exploring topics such as influencer marketing, the creator economy, technology, business, and cyber fraud.
YouTube may be an early indicator of sustainable artist growth, according to new research analyzing streaming patterns across millions of independent music tracks.
An analysis by the catalog financing company Duetti found that artists who experienced sustained growth on YouTube before other platforms were 16% more likely to develop durable audiences than those whose initial traction came elsewhere. The study examined data across more than 6 million independent tracks, positioning video-led engagement as a potential indicator of retention rather than short-term reach.
Platform Growth Patterns Reveal Differences in Audience Quality
Duetti’s research focused on independent artists earning more than $100 and less than $350,000 annually from streaming income, analyzing catalogs with an average age of 4.2 years. Durable catalogs were defined as those experiencing less than 10% annual decline in streaming activity.
The company tracked artists who achieved two consecutive months of YouTube growth and monitored their performance across platforms over time. According to the analysis, YouTube growth emerged as “the clearest differentiator” between artists who maintained long-term audience engagement and those whose performance declined.
Although the research identifies correlations rather than causation, Duetti suggests that video-first discovery may reflect stronger audience intent than passive listening environments.
Gradual Growth Outperforms Viral Spikes
The findings also challenge assumptions about the long-term value of viral moments. Only 1.14% of independent tracks analyzed achieved viral status (defined as a fivefold increase in streams within a single month), and just 0.17% sustained that level of performance beyond three months. Fewer than 0.11% maintained viral growth for six months.
By contrast, artists who grew at a steadier pace, roughly 10% over six months, were 60% more likely to build durable catalogs than those who experienced rapid spikes exceeding 25% growth within three months.
Duetti’s analysis suggests that consistent audience expansion, rather than sudden popularity surges, may better predict long-term performance. The pattern aligns with YouTube’s emphasis on repeat viewing and ongoing content output rather than single-track discovery.
Audience Composition Reinforces Durability Signals
Additional findings indicate that audience demographics and geographic concentration may influence catalog longevity. Artists whose listeners included at least 30% of users aged 35 and older were 40% more likely to develop durable catalogs, while those with more than 85% of listeners concentrated in a single country were 50% more likely to maintain sustained streaming activity.
The research suggests that focused, engaged communities may contribute more to long-term performance than broad but fragmented reach.
Duetti links these patterns to viewing behavior on video platforms, where audiences actively select content rather than relying solely on algorithmic audio playlists.
Implications for Brand Partnerships
For marketers assessing artist collaborations, the study highlights several signals beyond follower counts or total streams. Consecutive months of YouTube growth, concentrated audience demographics, and steady release schedules all correlated with stronger catalog durability.
Artists releasing at least three tracks per year generated 18% higher revenue per track during the first year after release compared with those releasing less frequently. Album releases also correlated with higher revenue performance, with artists issuing at least one album annually seeing 16% higher revenue per track than those focused only on singles.
The research also identified seasonal timing effects, particularly in alternative and indie genres, where summer releases were 2.2 times more likely to achieve durable catalog status than winter releases.
Duetti’s findings draw on proprietary royalty payout data collected through partnerships with more than 1,100 independent creators. While focused on music, the analysis offers a broader perspective on how sustained audience development, rather than viral reach, may influence long-term commercial outcomes across the Creator Economy.
Image source: Duetti
The full report is available here
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