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UBS Reveals Instagram Metrics Could Predict Investment Returns

UBS Evidence Lab’s latest report, ‘A Millennial’s Guide to Instagram,’ identifies a correlation between social media metrics and stock performance, suggesting that Instagram engagement data can serve as an indicator for investment decisions at the parent company level.

The proprietary Global Brand Tracker for Instagram monitors page and post-level data from leading global brands across categories, including Apparel Retail, Beauty Boutique, Beverages, Luxury Premium Mainstream, Restaurants, and Sportswear Athleisure.

According to UBS’s analysis, investors who buy undervalued U.S. consumer stocks with high Instagram interactions while selling overvalued stocks with lower engagement can achieve significant returns. This strategy demonstrates a 24.7% annual performance with an information ratio of 1.45.

UBS Reveals Instagram Metrics Could Predict Investment Returns


Image source: UBS

Instagram’s Growing Influence

Instagram continues to gain prominence across demographics, with Meta’s platform expected to generate over 50% of the company’s U.S. ad revenue for the first time in 2025, according to EMARKETER forecasts. The platform is projected to reach $32.03 billion in U.S. ad revenue, up 24.4% from 2024.

Recent data from Meta shows strong performance across its platforms, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching $42.3 billion, up 16% year-over-year. Instagram specifically reports growth in engagement, with improvements to recommendation systems leading to a 6% increase in time spent on the platform over the last six months.

Consumer Behavior

Instagram has emerged as one of the leading platforms for product discovery and commerce. Research from GRIN indicates that for Gen Z consumers aged 18-27, Instagram (30.4%) leads product discovery, surpassing traditional search engines, such as Google.

The platform’s evolution reflects broader changes in social media consumption patterns. Traackr’s 2025 U.S. Influencer Marketing Impact Report placed Instagram second in overall platform rankings for content consumption behind YouTube, having moved up one position from the previous year.

The platform’s algorithm favors posts with higher engagement rates, making accounts with growing followers and interactions more likely to gain exposure.

Nii A. Ahene

Nii A. Ahene is the founder and managing director of Net Influencer, a website dedicated to offering insights into the influencer marketing industry. Together with its newsletter, Influencer Weekly, Net Influencer provides news, commentary, and analysis of the events shaping the creator and influencer marketing space. Through interviews with startups, influencers, brands, and platforms, Nii and his team explore how influencer marketing is being effectively used to benefit businesses and personal brands alike.

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