A new risk assessment from Open World Research and Data Analytics advises brands running creator and paid-media campaigns for console shooters and sports titles to weigh “Grand Theft Auto VI’s” launch window carefully before scheduling major activations against it. The report, which combines the firm’s Quarterly Games Survey with PlayDX behavioral data, found that 69% of PC and console gamers 18 and older say they will “definitely” or “probably” play “GTA VI” at release, and it identifies a specific set of titles whose audiences it considers most likely to shift attention toward the game.
Which Games Carry the Most Exposure
Open World scored 27 titles on two measures: lifetime overlap with past “GTA” titles, drawn from PlayDX behavioral data, and launch-addressable “GTA VI” intent, drawn from its survey. “Call of Duty,” “Battlefield,” “Apex Legends,” “Fortnite,” “EA Sports FC” and “NBA 2K” all scored above average on both measures, placing them in what the report calls the highest direct risk tier, alongside “Escape from Tarkov,” “Rainbow Six Siege,” “ARC Raiders” and “Skate.” The report notes that all six titles in the first group have strong console audiences, which it ties to “GTA VI’s” console-first launch.
The Creator Timing Guidance
For titles in that tier, the report recommends teams “avoid stacking major content, creator or paid moments directly against GTA VI, and save the strongest re-engagement push for when attention starts to normalize.” It frames the launch window as a period to manage carefully, suggesting teams keep enough activity in market to support existing players without competing directly with “GTA VI” for the same attention. The report does not specify a timeline for when it expects attention to normalize.
The report also found only a modest inverse relationship (r = -0.33) between how much of their total gaming time an audience devotes to a title and how exposed that title is to “GTA VI.” “Fortnite,” “ARC Raiders” and “Escape from Tarkov” players each spend 30% or more of their gaming hours in those respective titles, according to PlayDX data, yet all three still sit in the highest direct risk tier, a pattern the report cites as evidence that an engaged fan base does not by itself reduce exposure.
A Different Calculus for Lower-Risk Titles
For titles in its lower or contained risk tiers, which include “Rocket League,” “Dead by Daylight,” “Warframe,” “Overwatch 2,” “Roblox,” “Elden Ring,” “Genshin Impact,” “Minecraft,” “Palworld,” “League of Legends” and “VALORANT,” Open World suggests staying active rather than pulling back, reasoning that lower “GTA VI” pull gives a title room to hold share of voice while more exposed competitors scale down. Absent a material shift in player behavior, the report describes business as usual as a reasonable approach for these titles.
A middle tier the report calls intent-led emerging risk covers titles with below-average “GTA” history, but above-average stated “GTA VI” intent, including “Street Fighter 6,” “World of Warcraft,” “Path of Exile,” “The Sims” and “Marvel Rivals.” For these, Open World recommends proceeding selectively and using early player behavior, rather than the risk score alone, to decide how much to spend.
Image source: Open World The full report can be foundhere
Dragomir is a Serbian freelance blog writer and translator. He is passionate about covering insightful stories and exploring topics such as influencer marketing, the creator economy, technology, business, and cyber fraud.
A new risk assessment from Open World Research and Data Analytics advises brands running creator and paid-media campaigns for console shooters and sports titles to weigh “Grand Theft Auto VI’s” launch window carefully before scheduling major activations against it. The report, which combines the firm’s Quarterly Games Survey with PlayDX behavioral data, found that 69% of PC and console gamers 18 and older say they will “definitely” or “probably” play “GTA VI” at release, and it identifies a specific set of titles whose audiences it considers most likely to shift attention toward the game.
Which Games Carry the Most Exposure
Open World scored 27 titles on two measures: lifetime overlap with past “GTA” titles, drawn from PlayDX behavioral data, and launch-addressable “GTA VI” intent, drawn from its survey. “Call of Duty,” “Battlefield,” “Apex Legends,” “Fortnite,” “EA Sports FC” and “NBA 2K” all scored above average on both measures, placing them in what the report calls the highest direct risk tier, alongside “Escape from Tarkov,” “Rainbow Six Siege,” “ARC Raiders” and “Skate.” The report notes that all six titles in the first group have strong console audiences, which it ties to “GTA VI’s” console-first launch.
The Creator Timing Guidance
For titles in that tier, the report recommends teams “avoid stacking major content, creator or paid moments directly against GTA VI, and save the strongest re-engagement push for when attention starts to normalize.” It frames the launch window as a period to manage carefully, suggesting teams keep enough activity in market to support existing players without competing directly with “GTA VI” for the same attention. The report does not specify a timeline for when it expects attention to normalize.
The report also found only a modest inverse relationship (r = -0.33) between how much of their total gaming time an audience devotes to a title and how exposed that title is to “GTA VI.” “Fortnite,” “ARC Raiders” and “Escape from Tarkov” players each spend 30% or more of their gaming hours in those respective titles, according to PlayDX data, yet all three still sit in the highest direct risk tier, a pattern the report cites as evidence that an engaged fan base does not by itself reduce exposure.
A Different Calculus for Lower-Risk Titles
For titles in its lower or contained risk tiers, which include “Rocket League,” “Dead by Daylight,” “Warframe,” “Overwatch 2,” “Roblox,” “Elden Ring,” “Genshin Impact,” “Minecraft,” “Palworld,” “League of Legends” and “VALORANT,” Open World suggests staying active rather than pulling back, reasoning that lower “GTA VI” pull gives a title room to hold share of voice while more exposed competitors scale down. Absent a material shift in player behavior, the report describes business as usual as a reasonable approach for these titles.
A middle tier the report calls intent-led emerging risk covers titles with below-average “GTA” history, but above-average stated “GTA VI” intent, including “Street Fighter 6,” “World of Warcraft,” “Path of Exile,” “The Sims” and “Marvel Rivals.” For these, Open World recommends proceeding selectively and using early player behavior, rather than the risk score alone, to decide how much to spend.
Image source: Open World
The full report can be found here
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